2026 WNBA Record Predictions: Final Win Totals for All 15 Teams

The contenders

Las Vegas Aces — 35-9. The defending champions swept the Mercury in the 2025 Finals and enter 2026 on a 16-game winning streak. A'ja Wilson is the only player in league history with four MVPs and she's 29 years old in her prime. Jackie Young, Chelsea Gray, and Jewell Loyd are all back. The Aces have won three titles in four years and there is no credible reason to pick against them until someone proves they can match Wilson in a seven-game series. They're our pick to repeat.

New York Liberty — 33-11. The betting favorites at +225 odds enter with arguably the deepest roster in the league — Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu, Jonquel Jones, and newly added Satou Sabally. The concern is that this group has been together long enough for opponents to have deep film on every action they run. New York won the 2024 title and lost in the semifinals last year. Getting back to the Finals is the expectation. Winning it requires beating Las Vegas, which is a different task entirely.

Atlanta Dream — 33-11. Thirty franchise-record wins last year, a first-round exit, and then they added Angel Reese. Coach Karl Smesko turned Naz Hillmon into a legitimate three-point threat in one season — if he unlocks Reese's range the same way, this team becomes genuinely dangerous. Allisha Gray, Rhyne Howard, Brionna Jones, and Jordin Canada are all back. Atlanta is our pick to win the Eastern Conference and make the Finals for the first time since 2011.

Indiana Fever — 30-14. All 44 games on national television. Caitlin Clark healthy for a full season. Kelsey Mitchell on a supermax deal. Aliyah Boston back and healthy. Raven Johnson looking legitimate in every preseason game. The Fever went to the semifinals last year without a healthy Clark for most of it. A healthy Clark for 44 games is a different team. Thirty wins is the floor. The ceiling is a Finals appearance.

The playoff locks

Minnesota Lynx — 28-16. The best team in the league last year went 34-10 and lost when Napheesa Collier went down with an injury in the playoffs. Collier is expected back in early June. Until then, Olivia Miles and Kayla McBride carry the load. The preseason showed a starting lineup with real questions — Howard and Williams combined for zero points on zero-for-ten shooting in the Tempo game. Reeve will figure it out. But this team is not the 34-win version until Collier is back and healthy.

Phoenix Mercury — 27-17. They made the Finals last year without Diana Taurasi and Brittney Griner — that tells you everything about what Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper built. Thomas averaged a career-high 9.2 assists last season. The concern is that Satou Sabally is gone to New York, and the Mercury haven't replaced her production. Getting back to the Finals is a stretch. Getting back to the semifinals is a strong season.

Dallas Wings — 25-19. Three-and-zero in the preseason. Beat the defending champions by 17 in the final tune-up. Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd, Alanna Smith, and Maddy Siegrist is a legitimate starting five. Aziaha James has been the most consistent performer of the preseason and she's not even in the starting lineup. Dallas goes from 10-34 last year to a playoff team in 2026 — and if Fudd finds her rhythm quickly, the ceiling is higher than that.

Golden State Valkyries — 24-20. They reached the playoffs in their first season. Veronica Burton is the right player to build around at point guard. Gabby Williams is back. The question is whether they can sustain it over 44 games with a roster that lost some depth from last year's surprise run. Twenty-four wins keeps them in the playoff picture. Missing the postseason in year two would be a significant step back.

The bubble teams

Seattle Storm — 22-22. A massive offseason haul — Flau'jae Johnson, Dominique Malonga, and a rebuilt roster around Ezi Magbegor — gives Seattle a different identity than the team that finished 23-21 last year. The talent is there. The integration takes time. Johnson had the most electric moments of any rookie in the preseason but is still learning the professional game. A .500 record and a first-round exit is the realistic projection. The upside is real if the young pieces click faster than expected.

Chicago Sky — 20-24. The most interesting rebuild in the league. Trading Reese cleared the path for a pace-and-space system under Tyler Marsh. Hailey Van Lith dropped 20 off the bench in the preseason opener and looked like exactly the kind of floor-spacing guard Marsh wants. Gabriela Jaquez — the No. 5 pick — has the right skills for this system. Chicago misses the playoffs but takes a meaningful step toward becoming relevant again by September.

Los Angeles Sparks — 19-25. Nneka Ogwumike is back where she won her MVP, and she's not here for a farewell tour — she averaged 18.3 points and 7.5 rebounds last season in Seattle. Dearica Hamby, Kelsey Plum, and Ariel Atkins give the Sparks a legitimate core. Cameron Brink played just 15 games in each of her first two seasons — if she stays healthy, this team's projection changes significantly. The Sparks just miss the playoff cut but are more competitive than their record suggests.

Washington Mystics — 18-26. The rebuild is real but Lauren Betts is the real thing. The No. 2 pick in the 2024 draft averaged a double-double in college and has shown flashes of franchise-level potential. Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen, and a young core give Washington something to build around. They won't make the playoffs, but they'll be more competitive than last year's 14-30 finish suggests.

The rebuilds and expansion teams

Connecticut Sun — 17-27. This is their last season in Uncasville before relocating to Houston. Brittney Griner leads the roster after returning from free agency. The expansion draft cost them Marina Mabrey — a significant loss. Gianna Kneepkens gives them floor spacing they've been missing. The Sun have enough veterans to be competitive but not enough star power to push into the top eight.

Toronto Tempo — 16-28. Two games into the preseason, Toronto has led in the fourth quarter of both games. Marina Mabrey and Julie Allemand are a legitimate backcourt when healthy. The frontcourt is thin and the depth is expansion-level. Sixteen wins in year one would be an excellent result — the Valkyries won 23 in their debut season, which was unprecedented. Toronto exceeding expectations is possible. Matching Golden State's first-year performance is probably a stretch.

Portland Fire — 11-33. Six key players missed their first ever preseason game with injuries. Bridget Carleton is a solid anchor but not a star. The roster was built through an expansion draft and a late-round college draft pick. Portland's first season will look a lot like what the Tempo's will look like — competitive effort, thin depth, and a long view toward year two and three when the draft picks they're accumulating start arriving.

Our predicted playoff bracket

Based on these projections, the eight playoff teams are Las Vegas, New York, Atlanta, Indiana, Minnesota, Phoenix, Dallas, and Golden State — with Chicago and Seattle just on the outside looking in. The semifinals match up Las Vegas against Dallas and New York against Atlanta. Las Vegas beats New York in the Finals in six games.

The most likely upset pick: Dallas over Minnesota in the second round if Fudd is fully healthy by August and the Wings' preseason form holds.

The boldest prediction: Atlanta makes the Finals. Reese, Howard, and Gray together for a full season under Smesko is a combination nobody has fully reckoned with yet.